Good evening, all.
The purpose of today’s newsletter is to take a brief peek at the long-range forecast (June 10-23 timeframe). We will discuss June’s first ten days in a more detailed forecast discussion later this week.
We’ve already begun to experience the effects of a developing El Niño in our weather conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific began increasing rapidly this spring. The central equatorial Pacific in recent weeks has followed suit. As a result, we’re already seeing an eastward expansion of the sub-tropical jet, which can and will influence precipitation patterns over the U.S.
These are our general expectations for June 10-23, 2023
Above to well-above average temperatures across Washington State and British Columbia; average to above average temperatures across the remainder of the Pacific Northwest
Active and wet pattern across the Great Basin and across much of the Rockies into the western Great Plains; temperatures below average over these regions
Mostly dry with seasonable temperatures across much of the Southwest, with eastern New Mexico possibly the exception with precipitation
Active across the Florida peninsula resulting in some drought relief
Average to above average temperatures near and east of the Mississippi, above average temperatures likeliest in the Southeast and up along the eastern seaboard
Probability of above/below average temperatures from June 10-23, 2023
Probability of above/below average precipitation from June 10-23, 2023
I take your forecasts seriously, and I proofread compulsively. . . . Take a peek (not peak), and suit (not suite), (There's very little I can do to improve your work, but there you go, FWIW.)
I really hope that it warms up here in Georgia and stays warm soon. Wanting to swim but the water hasn't warmed up yet because of the temps.