Weather Highlights

Two strong storm systems and an Arctic blast to follow

There’s a lot of weather to discuss, and this newsletter just scratches the surface. In this newsletter, I cover the next two storm systems and the incoming Arctic blast (and potential wintry weather prospects). I’ll release a medium & long-range forecast discussion later in the week and send it out via this newsletter.

Meteorologist Matthew Holliday

System 1

A powerful shortwave will dig into the Four Corners region today and induce the development of a surface low over New Mexico and west Texas. As the shortwave amplifies on Monday, the surface low will strengthen as it cuts through the Southern Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley/Midwest, and Great Lakes. Below are the regional impacts expected from this storm system.

• Severe weather risk along the Gulf Coast and Southeast on Monday & Tuesday (strong winds/tornadoes possible)

• Flooding risk across the Southeast Monday & Tuesday and northward into the Mid-Atlantic and New England Tuesday & Wednesday; widespread rainfall amounts 3-5+ inches possible for many spots

• Moderate to heavy rainfall also for the Ohio & Tennessee Valleys (some localized flooding risk)

• Wind storm, from the Southern Plains, Mid-South, Southeast, and especially from the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic and New England; tropical to even hurricane-force wind gusts possible

• Blizzard conditions in southeast Colorado, western Kansas, and Texas/Oklahoma panhandles on Monday

• A band of snowfall accumulations from the central Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes areas, where 6+ inches could fall across a decent swath

• Some backend snow from Tennessee/Kentucky to Ohio Valley and inland New England/Mid-Atlantic (most enhanced in the Appalachians); some snowflakes possible as far south as northern AL/GA

System 2

Later in the week, a second storm system will develop due to the interaction of several shortwave features. One feature will enter the Pacific Northwest early this week, bringing mountain snows and rain at lower elevations. By mid-week, a couple of additional waves will enter from the West Coast and carve out a trough across the central U.S. As a result, another surface low will develop and take a similar track across the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes.

Given the similar track to the early week system, impacts will generally be the same. The Mid-South and Southeast, and up the coast (into the Mid-Atlantic and New England) will get more rain (flooding possible). A swath of snow accumulations will occur from the Central Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region. Some guidance does bring the snow-line down to Oklahoma/northern Arkansas, and up through the Ohio Valley, which we'll continue to monitor.

Arctic Blast with Subsequent Intrusions

An extremely cold air mass will begin to infiltrate the northwestern U.S. around mid-week and begin spilling into the Great Plains over the weekend. Model guidance has been aggressive with the magnitude of this air mass, depicting temperature departures at 40-50 degrees below average or more.

This colder air mass will take hold even into the Southern Plains, Mid-South, and over into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley as early as this upcoming weekend and mostly remain in place through the following week. Several subsequent intrusions of Arctic air will reinforce the colder pattern that'll already be in place. Furthermore, snow cover will continue to expand, making up for lost time in December.

By mid-month or so, this colder air, even if somewhat muted, will begin extending to the East Coast and Southeast. A risk for overrunning events (ice potential) could first extend from the Southern Plains, Mid-South, and Ohio Valley into parts of Kentucky/Tennessee.

As we progress later into January (just after the 15th-ish), signs point to the potential for the South, including the Deep South, to have the best chances for wintry precipitation in at least several years. The Mid-Atlantic, as well, could enter a wintry period not experienced in several winters. We will continue to monitor this pattern closely.