Weather Highlights
Drying trend in Florida
Active/stormy California early week
More accumulating snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains and middle Rockies
Major warming trend for the majority of the U.S. this week
Thursday-Friday storm system for parts of central/eastern U.S.
Brief weekend cool-down eastern U.S., followed by more warm weather
Active West Coast and colder western third of U.S the following week
The first potential severe weather risk of the spring season on the following week
Forecast Discussion
As a long-wave trough departs the eastern U.S., a warming trend will ensue across most of the United States this week, east of the West Coast. As a trough sits just offshore the West Coast, a weak downstream ridge will build and the remainder of the Lower 48 will sit under the influence of zonal flow. The residual effects of this past weekend's cold airmass will hang on the longest east of the Mississippi but only for a day or so. Above to well-above-average temperatures will expand across most areas west of the Mississippi River by early week and extend to all areas east of the Mississippi River by Wednesday/Thursday (except for the Florida peninsula). A major reduction in snow cover will occur, especially east of the Rockies by mid-week.
The offshore trough and associated shortwave will bring a multi-day rain event to California (with flash flooding potential) and heavy Sierra Nevada snows, which have already begun. The Pacific Northwest will get in on some of the action early this week but will deal with a comparatively lower flooding risk. The slow-moving nature of the shortwave will result in a multi-day period of snow across the Utah mountains, the higher terrain of Nevada, and eventually the Colorado Rockies, with the highest chances for heavier snow around mid-week (generally speaking).
As the shortwave makes it east of the Rockies on Thursday, its speed will increase, and it'll spin around an incoming Canadian upper-level low, expected to drop into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by week's end. Two things will occur as a result.
The shortwave probably will bring a round of moderate rainfall to the mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, New England, and maybe as far south as the Tennessee Valley Thursday into Friday. The Southeast will briefly get some pre-frontal rains. Some snow could fall over far inland New England, and the middle and upper Appalachians could get snow on the backend of the system this weekend. Secondly, a trough will briefly rebuild across the eastern U.S. late week into the weekend. The core of the anomalous cold will likely stay confined to New England and maybe the northern Mid-Atlantic. For the remainder of the eastern U.S., the cold will be muted, since there will be no western U.S./western Canada ridge in place. But regardless of location, the cold will be very brief.
Briefly looking into the following week (Feb 26 onward), two strong shortwaves look to enter the West Coast by early that week, carving out a western U.S. trough. This pattern and associated waves could bring considerably colder weather to the western third of the nation, an active West Coast, and more mountain snow. East of the Rockies, there are some concerns that severe weather will occur in what could be a large warm sector. Right now, we can't outline specific regions, but the pattern fits for severe weather. The Upper Great Plains and Upper Midwest may manage to pick up some accumulating snowfall in this pattern.
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