Weather Highlights (Mid-Late June 2024)
Excessive heat, flash flooding, tropical activity, and snow. What kind of weather isn't happening this month!?
Weather Highlights
A record-strong ridge will build across the northeast quadrant of the U.S. this week but begin breaking down over the weekend. The Ohio Valley, lower/central Midwest, Great Lakes region, and New England will sit positioned to the west/north of the ridge’s center, resulting in a humid airmass advecting into those regions from the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, the high temperature + high humidity combo will result in dangerous/excessive heat conditions. High temperatures are forecast to climb well into the 90s, approaching 100 in localized areas, with overnight lows staying in the 70s, not providing relief from the heat. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Watches have been issued for much of the region.
This evening, a potent, mid-level low will swing in Washington state & Oregon, bringing anomalous cold and high-elevation snowfall to the Northern Rockies tonight and Monday. A weather balloon released earlier today from Quillayute, Washington sampled temperatures at the 700 millibar level (low/mid-levels of the atmosphere) to be 14°F, barely missing the daily low record set in 1981. Outside the higher elevations, a very rainy/stormy pattern will occur across central Idaho, most of Montana, and far northern Wyoming on Monday-Tuesday. This same system also dropped snow levels down to 3,500 feet in the Washington and Oregon Cascades.
Heavy rain/flash flooding will likely occur across southwest Louisiana and parts of southern/central Texas this week. A wave will move northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this week and potentially consolidate into a low as it moves near the southeast Texas coast around mid-week. This feature has a decent shot at becoming the first tropical storm of this Atlantic hurricane season, but regardless, flash flooding will be a big concern. An anomalously tropical airmass (even by coastal Texas standards) will wrap into the area around the strong ridging to the northeast. A large area of 6+ rainfall totals are quite probable with some areas potentially exceeding a foot over the next 3-5 days. If this system develops and is named, it would become Tropical Storm Alberto.
Heavy/rain flash flooding will likely occur along a region extending from the central/northern Plains to parts of the Midwest. This region will be positioned between a large-scale trough over the West and an anomalously strong ridge over the East. A shortwave series, some stronger than others, will rotate around the trough into the central Plains and Midwest. Numerous rounds of storms are likely to occur over the next 5-7+ days. Due to the longevity of this unsettled pattern across these regions, flash flooding will increasingly become a risk as this week progresses. 4-6+ inch totals could fall over a widespread area over the next 5 days.
Other, Brief Highlights
An easterly wave will reach the Southeast coast later in the week. Some tropical development/impacts are possible and need to be monitored.
A major warming trend will begin across the western U.S. around mid-week, as ridging starts building into the region. Well-above-average temperatures are likely from late week into the following week across the Northwest and Southwest.
Primarily dry conditions across much of the Southeast this week will be replaced by a more humid, stormy pattern the following week.
The strong ridge will break down across the Northeast and be replaced by a more active pattern the following week.
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