Weather Highlights (Mid-Late June 2024)

Excessive heat, flash flooding, tropical activity, and snow. What kind of weather isn't happening this month!?

Weather Highlights

• A record-strong ridge will build across the northeast quadrant of the U.S. this week but begin breaking down over the weekend. The Ohio Valley, lower/central Midwest, Great Lakes region, and New England will sit positioned to the west/north of the ridge’s center, resulting in a humid airmass advecting into those regions from the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, the high temperature + high humidity combo will result in dangerous/excessive heat conditions. High temperatures are forecast to climb well into the 90s, approaching 100 in localized areas, with overnight lows staying in the 70s, not providing relief from the heat. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Watches have been issued for much of the region.

• This evening, a potent, mid-level low will swing in Washington state & Oregon, bringing anomalous cold and high-elevation snowfall to the Northern Rockies tonight and Monday. A weather balloon released earlier today from Quillayute, Washington sampled temperatures at the 700 millibar level (low/mid-levels of the atmosphere) to be 14°F, barely missing the daily low record set in 1981. Outside the higher elevations, a very rainy/stormy pattern will occur across central Idaho, most of Montana, and far northern Wyoming on Monday-Tuesday. This same system also dropped snow levels down to 3,500 feet in the Washington and Oregon Cascades.

• Heavy rain/flash flooding will likely occur across southwest Louisiana and parts of southern/central Texas this week. A wave will move northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this week and potentially consolidate into a low as it moves near the southeast Texas coast around mid-week. This feature has a decent shot at becoming the first tropical storm of this Atlantic hurricane season, but regardless, flash flooding will be a big concern. An anomalously tropical airmass (even by coastal Texas standards) will wrap into the area around the strong ridging to the northeast. A large area of 6+ rainfall totals are quite probable with some areas potentially exceeding a foot over the next 3-5 days. If this system develops and is named, it would become Tropical Storm Alberto.

• Heavy/rain flash flooding will likely occur along a region extending from the central/northern Plains to parts of the Midwest. This region will be positioned between a large-scale trough over the West and an anomalously strong ridge over the East. A shortwave series, some stronger than others, will rotate around the trough into the central Plains and Midwest. Numerous rounds of storms are likely to occur over the next 5-7+ days. Due to the longevity of this unsettled pattern across these regions, flash flooding will increasingly become a risk as this week progresses. 4-6+ inch totals could fall over a widespread area over the next 5 days.

Other, Brief Highlights

• An easterly wave will reach the Southeast coast later in the week. Some tropical development/impacts are possible and need to be monitored.

• A major warming trend will begin across the western U.S. around mid-week, as ridging starts building into the region. Well-above-average temperatures are likely from late week into the following week across the Northwest and Southwest.

• Primarily dry conditions across much of the Southeast this week will be replaced by a more humid, stormy pattern the following week.

• The strong ridge will break down across the Northeast and be replaced by a more active pattern the following week.

We launched a social network just for weather.

We’ve spent the last 6 months building a brand-new social network community dedicated only to weather. We’re calling it Firsthand Weather Community. We built this as a major upgrade to our Facebook Supporter Group, where we were severely limited by what we could provide our subscribers. We specially crafted the Firsthand Weather Community to be a place where our most dedicated followers can get early access to our long-range and seasonal forecasts and where we can dig much deeper into the why behind our short-range and long-range forecasts. In this community, we will also provide personalized forecasts, specific to the needs of each member. For obvious reasons, we can’t possibly provide that level of detail to our entire 200,000+ person audience.

Firsthand Weather Community is invite-only and exclusively available to current and past members of our Facebook supporter group and Kickstarter backers (supporters, email us if you need an invite). But for those that don’t fall into either of those groups, we’re offering a Father’s Day special to the first 100 sign-ups, along with a one-month free trial. If you miss the first 100 sign-ups, you will be placed on a waitlist if you sign up before tomorrow evening. We’re capping the total membership to 1,000 to keep this community small and close-knit. When you join, you’ll get an email reminder 3 days before your free trial ends to ensure you don’t pay a dime if you don’t intend to stay.