Weather Highlights for Memorial Day Weekend and Next Week

Coastal low to bring flooding risk to parts of the Southeast this weekend

Weekend flooding risk in the Carolinas

Moderate to heavy rainfall will plague the Carolinas this Memorial weekend. A frontal boundary sitting off the Southeast coast has produced a region of disorganized weather conditions. A mid-level trough and closed low over the Southeast will further enhance storminess offshore. A surface low will eventually develop and come ashore the Carolinas this weekend.

The system probably won’t develop into a sub-tropical or tropical, but regardless, impacts will be the same. Heavy rain with potential flooding and gusty winds will cause some concerns. Several inches of rain could fall over the weekend, with some of the rainy weather extending into far eastern Georgia, far eastern Tennessee, and the lower Virginias.

Daily storm and flooding risk to extend across western Plains, eastern Southwest, and parts of the Rockies

This region will continue to find itself juxtaposed between a large trough to their west and ridging to the northeast. Thus, a favorable zone of storminess will persist, especially during the day, from eastern New Mexico and western Texas all the way into the western North Plains and Montana/Idaho/Wyoming. In addition to a flash flooding risk, it’ll be important to monitor the daily severe weather risk (wind, hail, and even tornado potential). This pattern will persist beyond Memorial Day.

High pressure building into Great Lakes region, Midwest, Ohio Valley, New England/Mid-Atlantic to be followed by a hotter pattern

Behind a passing cold front, a surface high has continued to build into the Great Lakes region, the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. This high won’t depart offshore until after Memorial Day, so most of these regions will have a dry and quite nice holiday. However, parts of the Mid-Atlantic, like the Carolinas, will get some impacts from the coastal low over the weekend.

As ridging builds and extends eastward, a rapid warming trend will begin this weekend across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes region, and New England. This hot pattern will persist through at least the remainder of Memorial Day week, eventually extending southward into the Ohio Valley. Additionally, dry conditions, for the majority, will linger over the same period beyond the holiday.

Typical Florida peninsula storminess to continue on and off

The Florida peninsula has finally come out of its very dry winter and spring. This month has brought welcomed storminess that has put some dent in the drought. Still, there’s a section of the Florida west coast that remains under extreme drought.

The closed low to the north will keep temperatures relatively cool through Memorial Day. The southern half of the peninsula, in particular, will continue to have their typical daily storm chances. A warming trend to more average temperatures will occur after the holiday. A shortwave or two will probably cross the region next week, which could induce more widespread storm activity certain days.

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